Comments for Vital Systems Security http://anthropos-lab.net/vss An ARC Collaboration Wed, 03 Mar 2010 08:39:23 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 Comment on Updated H1N1 Severity by Nick Shapiro http://anthropos-lab.net/vss/2010/02/updated-h1n1-severity/comment-page-1/#comment-56161 Nick Shapiro Wed, 03 Mar 2010 08:39:23 +0000 http://anthropos-lab.net/vss/?p=487#comment-56161 thanks for that Lyle, I've been working on asthma since I did that animal biosecurity post right as h1n1 broke out. it's unfortunate, but interesting, to see that the two research threads (biosecurity & increases in global asthma severity) intertwine. i've forwarded this on to my asthma working group. thanks for the heads up! thanks for that Lyle, I’ve been working on asthma since I did that animal biosecurity post right as h1n1 broke out. it’s unfortunate, but interesting, to see that the two research threads (biosecurity & increases in global asthma severity) intertwine. i’ve forwarded this on to my asthma working group. thanks for the heads up!

]]> Comment on Swine Flu (Redux) by Cirinn Yarthorpe http://anthropos-lab.net/vss/2009/04/swine-flu-redux/comment-page-1/#comment-55197 Cirinn Yarthorpe Fri, 19 Feb 2010 11:06:38 +0000 http://anthropos-lab.net/vss/?p=342#comment-55197 Verification is awaited late today for the foremost example of to someone person carry-over of swine influenza in the UK. It is thought to be a friend of Lain and Dawn Askham, who were the first affirmed victims in the UK and they assembled subsequently after their homecoming from honeymoon in United Mexican States. at the start the man was cleared but later on his symptoms carried on he was re examined and was found to be suffering from Type A flu. Examinations are still in progress but are likely to confirm swine influenza. This at once takes the complete number of swine influenza sufferers in the United Kingdom to 8 -that is 6 in England 2 in Scotland but thus far no deceases. Verification is awaited late today for the foremost example of to someone person carry-over of swine influenza in the UK. It is thought to be a friend of Lain and Dawn Askham, who were the first affirmed victims in the UK and they assembled subsequently after their homecoming from honeymoon in United Mexican States. at the start the man was cleared but later on his symptoms carried on he was re examined and was found to be suffering from Type A flu. Examinations are still in progress but are likely to confirm swine influenza. This at once takes the complete number of swine influenza sufferers in the United Kingdom to 8 -that is 6 in England 2 in Scotland but thus far no deceases.

]]> Comment on Cold and Modernization Risk in Tajikistan by neweurasia.net » Tajikistan: Hunger to Replace Cold and Darkness http://anthropos-lab.net/vss/2008/02/cold-and-modernization-risk-in-tajikistan/comment-page-1/#comment-53784 neweurasia.net » Tajikistan: Hunger to Replace Cold and Darkness Thu, 04 Feb 2010 10:12:11 +0000 http://anthropos-lab.net/vss/2008/02/cold-and-modernization-risk-in-tajikistan/#comment-53784 [...] opines on the BBC report saying that Tajikistan is already facing the catastrophe: It’s not just the [...] [...] opines on the BBC report saying that Tajikistan is already facing the catastrophe: It’s not just the [...]

]]> Comment on Situation Awareness in Public Health by Lori http://anthropos-lab.net/vss/2009/07/situation-awareness-in-public-health/comment-page-1/#comment-51626 Lori Sun, 10 Jan 2010 08:26:30 +0000 http://anthropos-lab.net/vss/?p=456#comment-51626 We all face these two problems daily. Situational awareness and information pollution. How do you know what you need to know to work and live better. And at the same time not experience a cognitive overload of either too much or untrustworthy knowledge? This is especially important in the case of health care. The key is to gather the right information ( but not too much), being able to objectively analyze it, and make projections based on the analysis. It means being able to do something useful with the information. We all face these two problems daily. Situational awareness and information pollution. How do you know what you need to know to work and live better. And at the same time not experience a cognitive overload of either too much or untrustworthy knowledge? This is especially important in the case of health care.

The key is to gather the right information ( but not too much), being able to objectively analyze it, and make projections based on the analysis. It means being able to do something useful with the information.

]]> Comment on Beijing and H1N1 by | Acne Treatments Asia http://anthropos-lab.net/vss/2009/06/beijing-and-h1n1/comment-page-1/#comment-51262 | Acne Treatments Asia Tue, 05 Jan 2010 03:16:38 +0000 http://anthropos-lab.net/vss/2009/06/beijing-and-h1n1/#comment-51262 If you look at the pandemic of 1977, when H1N1 or Swine Flu re-emerged after a 20 year absence, there is no shift in age-related mortality pattern. The 1977 “pandemic” is, of course, not considered a true pandemic by experts today, for reasons that are not entierely consistent. It certainly was an antigenic shift and not an antigenic drift. As far as I have been able to follow the current events, the most significant factor seems to have been that most people, who were severely affected, were people with other medical conditions. If you look at the pandemic of 1977, when H1N1 or Swine Flu re-emerged after a 20 year absence, there is no shift in age-related mortality pattern. The 1977 “pandemic” is, of course, not considered a true pandemic by experts today, for reasons that are not entierely consistent. It certainly was an antigenic shift and not an antigenic drift. As far as I have been able to follow the current events, the most significant factor seems to have been that most people, who were severely affected, were people with other medical conditions.

]]> Comment on The Next Pandemic by Lyle Fearnley http://anthropos-lab.net/vss/2009/12/the-next-pandemic/comment-page-1/#comment-51222 Lyle Fearnley Mon, 04 Jan 2010 14:45:26 +0000 http://anthropos-lab.net/vss/?p=478#comment-51222 This is complementary to the previous discussion in interesting ways. Two modes of thinking employed by experts throughout the pandemic, and fundamental to public health as it operates today, are 1) prediction and 2) what an informant called "induction". By induction, he meant the emphasis on basing public health action on more and better information. Thus, at the H1N1 conference in Beijing this summer, Margaret Chan from video-feed opened the proceedings by saying "What we need now is information". The problem with this mode of thinking, as the informant argued to me, is that it can never guide action to an unexpected future event, which is precisely what is possible with an emerging disease. No matter how much information we have about the past experience with this virus, or previous flu viruses, it may not provide the proper guidance. Prediction is then a complementary mode that provides answers to questions about the future. But as we have argued before, preparedness is not prediction. Action in the present based on 'preparedness' relies on a metric distinct from both the accuracy of prognostication and the authority of information. What this metric is needs further specification. This is complementary to the previous discussion in interesting ways. Two modes of thinking employed by experts throughout the pandemic, and fundamental to public health as it operates today, are 1) prediction and 2) what an informant called “induction”. By induction, he meant the emphasis on basing public health action on more and better information. Thus, at the H1N1 conference in Beijing this summer, Margaret Chan from video-feed opened the proceedings by saying “What we need now is information”. The problem with this mode of thinking, as the informant argued to me, is that it can never guide action to an unexpected future event, which is precisely what is possible with an emerging disease. No matter how much information we have about the past experience with this virus, or previous flu viruses, it may not provide the proper guidance. Prediction is then a complementary mode that provides answers to questions about the future. But as we have argued before, preparedness is not prediction. Action in the present based on ‘preparedness’ relies on a metric distinct from both the accuracy of prognostication and the authority of information. What this metric is needs further specification.

]]> Comment on The Next Pandemic by Carlo Caduff http://anthropos-lab.net/vss/2009/12/the-next-pandemic/comment-page-1/#comment-50920 Carlo Caduff Fri, 01 Jan 2010 16:46:50 +0000 http://anthropos-lab.net/vss/?p=478#comment-50920 ... yes, that's Luhmann's argument. The failure of scientific prediction makes it not necessarily useless, on the contrary. As to a): Inquiry as a way of engaging the recent past? The re-emerging rhetoric of the next pandemic is increasingly blocking such inquiry. … yes, that’s Luhmann’s argument. The failure of scientific prediction makes it not necessarily useless, on the contrary.

As to a): Inquiry as a way of engaging the recent past? The re-emerging rhetoric of the next pandemic is increasingly blocking such inquiry.

]]> Comment on The Next Pandemic by Stephen Collier http://anthropos-lab.net/vss/2009/12/the-next-pandemic/comment-page-1/#comment-50917 Stephen Collier Fri, 01 Jan 2010 15:36:06 +0000 http://anthropos-lab.net/vss/?p=478#comment-50917 Carlo -- Isn't the implication of what you are saying that: (a) there may not be a way to "inhabit the past in some meaningful way"? (b) that accurate prognostication cannot and should not be the norm of legitimate expertise in this game? Carlo — Isn’t the implication of what you are saying that: (a) there may not be a way to “inhabit the past in some meaningful way”? (b) that accurate prognostication cannot and should not be the norm of legitimate expertise in this game?

]]> Comment on H1N1 Deaths and the Severity Calculus by Carlo Caduff http://anthropos-lab.net/vss/2009/12/h1n1-deaths-and-the-severity-calculus/comment-page-1/#comment-50567 Carlo Caduff Sun, 27 Dec 2009 18:48:03 +0000 http://anthropos-lab.net/vss/?p=476#comment-50567 If you look at the "pandemic" of 1977, when H1N1 re-emerged after a 20 year absence, there is no shift in age-related mortality pattern. The 1977 "pandemic" is, of course, not considered a true pandemic by experts today, for reasons that are not entierely consistent. It certainly was an antigenic shift and not an antigenic drift. So you then get into an argument about what is and what is not considered a pandemic and what kinds of events you are comparing. If you compare the 1918 pandemic with the pandemics of 1957 and 1968, the W-shaped age-specific morality curve is unlike those of all other official pandemics. The 1918 pandemic is associated with a massive shift in age specific mortality which is very different from all that followed. As far as I have been able to follow the current events, the most significant factor seems to have been that most people, who were severely affected, were people with other medical conditions. If you look at the “pandemic” of 1977, when H1N1 re-emerged after a 20 year absence, there is no shift in age-related mortality pattern. The 1977 “pandemic” is, of course, not considered a true pandemic by experts today, for reasons that are not entierely consistent. It certainly was an antigenic shift and not an antigenic drift. So you then get into an argument about what is and what is not considered a pandemic and what kinds of events you are comparing.

If you compare the 1918 pandemic with the pandemics of 1957 and 1968, the W-shaped age-specific morality curve is unlike those of all other official pandemics. The 1918 pandemic is associated with a massive shift in age specific mortality which is very different from all that followed.

As far as I have been able to follow the current events, the most significant factor seems to have been that most people, who were severely affected, were people with other medical conditions.

]]> Comment on H1N1 Deaths and the Severity Calculus by Lyle Fearnley http://anthropos-lab.net/vss/2009/12/h1n1-deaths-and-the-severity-calculus/comment-page-1/#comment-50563 Lyle Fearnley Sun, 27 Dec 2009 17:31:38 +0000 http://anthropos-lab.net/vss/?p=476#comment-50563 I have always heard that age-shift was associated with all three twentieth-century pandemics. From an article co-authored by Don Olson of New York, "A characteristic feature of influenza epi- demiology has historically been that the burden of excess mortality in interpandemic seasons occurs primarily in older age groups, whereas the burden in pandemic seasons shifts disproportionately to younger ages (19). During and following each of the three major 20th-century pandemics in which this pattern occurred, in subsequent epidemic seasons, the burden of mortality shifted proportionally back to older age groups." This is why New York City was (back a couple of years ago) developing syndromic surveillance systems that monitored for age-shifts as a 'sign' of a possible pandemic event. Of course, as it turned out, viral surveillance detected pandemic potential (by identifying 'novelty') long before any syndromic surveillance system produced any information at all. I have always heard that age-shift was associated with all three twentieth-century pandemics. From an article co-authored by Don Olson of New York, “A characteristic feature of influenza epi-
demiology has historically been that the burden of excess mortality in interpandemic seasons occurs primarily in older age groups, whereas the burden in pandemic seasons shifts disproportionately to younger ages (19). During and following each of the three major 20th-century pandemics in which this pattern occurred, in subsequent epidemic seasons, the burden of mortality shifted proportionally back to older age groups.” This is why New York City was (back a couple of years ago) developing syndromic surveillance systems that monitored for age-shifts as a ’sign’ of a possible pandemic event. Of course, as it turned out, viral surveillance detected pandemic potential (by identifying ‘novelty’) long before any syndromic surveillance system produced any information at all.

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