Vital Systems Security

Here is an interesting piece from NY Times on some familiar issues we have been dealing with in the OEP research. 

The record storms and floods that swept through the Midwest last month struck at the heart of America’s corn region, drowning fields and dashing hopes of a bumper crop.

They also brought into sharp relief a new economic hazard. As America grows more reliant on corn for its fuel supply, it is becoming vulnerable to the many hazards that can damage crops, ranging from droughts to plagues to storms.

Apparently the price of ethanol went up by 19 percent in a month after the floods. The article goes on to construct a scenario that can take place once the share of biofuel in the overall supply of gasoline goes up to 20 percent:

Experts fear that a future crop failure could take so much fuel out of the market that it would send prices soaring at the pump. Eventually, the cost of filling Americans’ gas tanks could be influenced as much by hail in Iowa as by the bombing of an oil pipeline in Nigeria.

Just as in the case of OEP once again a catastrophic event (storm and flood) in a medium inherently governed by stochastic processes (the weather) problematized as a potential threat to the stability of the economy as a vulnerable system (eventually leads to the question of resilience again as we saw in the case of war mobilization and inflation problem by the early 70s under Nixon). As the article argues, introduction of biofuel leads to a new level of vulnerability:

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita interrupted a quarter of the nation’s oil production and closed dozens of refineries for weeks. Lines formed for the first time since the 1970s as gasoline spiked above $3 a gallon, a record at the time. The nation’s increasing dependence on crops for motor fuel adds another level of vulnerability from the weather.

I thought what is particularly interesting in this case is the opening up of a blockage as we pass a threshold with the emergence of biofuel. To my knowledge this is a very new development as corn, a conventional and critical source of food for populations is becoming a source of energy as the seemingly stable barrier between these two categories of vital domains are being linked for the first time as we demolished the barrier separating these two domains. Now we face with a new interface that is in need of being governed as one can even see in the concerns that IMF and World Bank have expressed their worries about this new phenomenon recently. 

It seems like at a technical level the first 3 generations of biofuels, there is nothing new about the process of transforming biomass into biofuel. It is a simple process of production of ethanol. However, what is interesting is that a company called Synthetic Genomics is is genetically engineering microorganisms to produce fuel directly from carbon dioxide on an industrial scale, which might be a possible solution to the problem of vulnerability mentioned above. I believe the founder of the company might be a familiar figure to those who are working on synthetic biology: Craig Venter, a member of the effort to map the human genome and the founder of The Institute for Genomic Research. An interesting convergence of VSS and Synthetic Biology and Nanotechnology blogs…

Here is a new and interesting article that engages some of the VSS work:

Increasingly, governmental responses to incalculable, but high-consequence, threats to life and security are framed by what has been described as the `precautionary principle’ (Ewald), `preparedness’ (Collier, Lakoff & Rabinow) or `pre-emption’ (Derrida). This article redescribes features common to these characterizations as the paradigm of prudence and examines how this approach to risk management is playing out in the context of fears that feature within the Australian political imaginary. We explore how the approach to the future entailed in the paradigm enframes `life’ and stifles democratic participation and innovation in ways of living. Three case studies (in biosecurity, bioecology and biomedicine) demonstrate not only how the paradigm pervades the government of everyday life, but also how it is challenged by human `agents’, material `life’ and the dynamic relations between these two. By formulating what this involves, we point to a concept of the political more conducive to democratic pluralism, diversity of life and innovative culture.

DemfromCT — a blogger on DailyKos — has another interesting post on school closure and pandemic preparedness. It is about many things, among more information on exercises that show that in the US school closure may not be in time to help much, and an interesting comparison with a recent minor outbreak in Hong Kong, where, apparently, parents held students home from school in a “precautionary” fashion before a decision was taken to close schools. Also interesting is the mention of the role that blogs and the internet more generally would play in a pandemic.

Trust for America’s Health has released its 2007 edition of “Ready Or Not?”, a yearly treasure trove of information on the state of public health preparedness in the US. The report provides a thorough assessment of the wide array of activities, issues and trends that intersect to help form this constantly changing field. It is a gem and should be required reading for anyone with a professional interest in the field.

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I shouldn’t be so snarky because the story is actually really interesting. Check out this link from yesterday’s LA Times, which details the behind-the-scenes politicking which proved the coup de grace for one of the nation’s first next-generation vaccines against a category A agent: VaxGen’s rPA102 anthrax vaccine. Deft lobbying and savvy rhetoric by Emergent BioSolutions, Inc., proved insurmountable for the South San Francisco company, which not only failed to produce the nation’s first BioShield-related vaccine, but was kicked in the teeth for trying. Amongst all the great reasons for not wanting to see anthrax ever appear amongst human populations in epidemic proportions is the discomfiting imagery of the six shot series of vaccinations that will still be needed in the event of such a threat. Emergent BioSolutions, manufacturer of said scary but mostly-kind-of effective vaccine, effectively argued that VaxGen’s (substantially less onerous) product was of questionable worth, developed by novices. Ouch. I thought BioShield’s point was to get novices in the game, because BigPharma was avoiding orphan vaccines like the plague. Ha! The plague!

Oh yeah, and look at this cool picture.

In our work on the genealogy of vital systems security, Stephen and I have noted the importance of “imaginative enactment” as a form of VSS knowledge-production. Among other things, imaginative enactment is a method for determining infrastructural vulnerabilities in the absence of archival data on the historical incidence of what are termed “low probability, high consequence” events – such as a virulent influenza pandemic, a dirty bomb attack on a major city, a catastrophic earthquake, etc. One form of imaginative enactment that I’ve been looking at is the scenario-based exercise. These are role-playing games in which decision makers are faced with an urgent crisis sparked by an event (a terrorist attack, an outbreak of an infectious disease, etc), take action to intervene, and watch the results of their interventions unfold. In this post, I want to begin to explore the structure and history of this type of imaginative enactment – which was originally developed in the 1950s at RAND (along with everything else), and called the “political exercise.”

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Here is the GAO report on the US government’s ill-conceived attempt to fund the development of a second-generation vaccine for anthrax.

Props to Elaine Grossman over at GSN for a fascinating story on Congressional concerns with the recently unveiled (Draft) National Response Framework. You might have to scroll down a bit to find it. We had a bit of chatter about the NRF on this blog, and perhaps this story will spark further discussion. The gist of the concerns about the plan — oops, sorry, “framework” — is that, well, it is not a plan but rather it is only a framework(!) And a not-so-clear one at that. Familiar critiques include: lack of clarity of roles and responsibilities — even duplication and overlap; the use of ambiguous terminology and concepts; and a conspicuous absence of operational details which could provide useful guidance about implementation… DHS is also facing criticism for the lack of transparency in drafting/writing process for the document, which it vociferously denies, claiming that expertise and personnel across disciplines and agencies were brought to the table in crafting the NRF. Unless I’m misreading things, I do believe the general sense is that DHS has messed something up!

This might be a good time, by the bye, to refer the, um, five of us to an informative report put out by NYU which highlights some of the legal and organizational incongruities cropping up as a result of recent legislation and an orientation towards the catastrophic. I bring it up here because it is an interesting piece to this changing puzzle we’re dealing with, and for me anyway helps to clarify how it is that FEMA is really getting pushed and shoved all over the place in terms of its responsibilities, and equally: its capabilities.

Reporting from LA…. The southern CA firestorm is perhaps FEMA’s first major test since Hurricane Katrina. A big task is the evacuation. There are multiple fires and they are traveling fast and in unpredictable ways. People sometimes want to stay to protect their houses in the absence of firefighters. One criticism likely to emerge is that the SD fire dept lacked resources, despite the known fire danger. Another - which is always noted after fires, but does not seem to affect development - is that people should not be allowed to build houses in these zones. So far it seems that the evacuation has been handled in a very different way than New Orleans. According to reports, the 20,000 people in Qualcomm stadium are well-fed, the national guard is there with automatic weapons in case of social disorder. On the other hand it is not clear that there are sufficient resources available for people showing up in evacuation centers, such as the race track in Del Mar. This is a very different situation than Katrina, of course. First, the city is not totally engulfed: most of its infrastructure (communications, electricity, transportation) is operational. Second, the race and class dynamic is different: many of the burned and threatened areas are wealthy suburbs, and residents have resources and networks to find adequate accommodations after evacuating. Third, state and federal leaders know they are under scrutiny and must demonstrate quick response (not to mention that the CA governor is from the same party as the president). FEMA has set up a Joint Field Office in Pasadena; USNORTHCOM, the Red Cross, etc are in action. A lot now depends on how much longer the heat and Santa Ana winds continue….

Oct 22, 2007 (CIDRAP News) The White House recently issued a lengthy homeland security directive aimed at bolstering the response of federal, state, and local public health systems to national emergencies such as bioterrorist attacks, influenza pandemics, and natural disasters. Read the rest of this entry »