Archive for December, 2009

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By: Carlo Caduff
Posted in avian flu, biopolitics, preparedness, swine flu on December 31st, 2009

The novel H1N1 virus has been elected the "virus of the year." According to the journal Science Order ativan, , the pandemic was a "near miss." As the authors of the short piece argue, the "H1N1 virus was less virulent than feared, but the next pandemic could be worse." Prepare for the next pandemic is the message.

What kind of work is the trope of the Next Pandemic doing, ativan online kaufen. Comprare ativan sconto, Might it not be worth investigating the current pandemic first, before we jump to the next, ordering ativan online legally. Ordering ativan pills, Before we orient ourselves towards the near future, it might be necessary to first inhabit the recent past in some meaningful way, köpa rabatterade ativan. Köpa ativan online, What, in fact, Um ativan online, Ativan en ligne afin, has just happened. Apparently, it is easier for experts to take responsibility for the future than for the past, order ativan.

Just to remind ourselves:

1, kjøpe ativan online. Cheap ativan online legally, Most experts predicted the emergence of an H5 virus. It was an H1 virus, cheap ativan. Ativan discount, 2. Order ativan, Most experts predicted that the pandemic would start off in South-East Asia. It turned out to be closer to home, ativan pedido en línea. Ordering ativan overnight delivery, 3. Most experts predicted that it would be a devastating event, billiga ativan apotek. Acheter ativan, WHO now calls it a "moderate" pandemic.

4, ordering ativan no prescription. Ativan no prescription, Most experts predicted serious consequences for critical infrastructure.

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By: Lyle Fearnley
Posted in risk, surveillance, swine flu on December 23rd, 2009

Order ativan no prescription, Calculations of the severity of the novel H1N1 influenza pandemic have been sorely lacking.  As Laurie Garret and other experts noted early on, the lack of an index of severity in WHO’s pandemic alert system perhaps led some governments—and certainly much of the public—to consider ‘pandemic’ as an indication of danger rather than a reflection of geographical prevalence.  H1N1 was responded to as if it were the actualization of the potential H5N1 outbreak everyone was waiting for.  Or it was for a moment.  For no sooner did some numbers start coming in then the threat began to be downplayed: death rates appeared far lower than seasonal flu.

Now, South Carolina SC S.C. , Cheapest ativan online, in a report issued on December 12th by CDC, we have some more numbers about how many people have caught the pandemic flu, California CA Calif. , Ordering ativan from canada, how many have been hospitalized and how many have died in the United States.  The summarized data presented in the media is distilled in the number 9,820: deaths from H1N1.  This is usually presented either to downplay the severity, ativan cheap, Texas TX Tex. , by comparing the number to the 36,000 seasonal flu deaths estimated to occur each year; or, buy ativan c.o.d., Order ativan overnight delivery, conversely, to demonstrate the danger of the outbreak through a comparison with the previous estimate, cheap ativan tablets, Purchase ativan online, one month ago, of only 3, αγοράσετε ativan, Osta ativan online, 900 H1N1 deaths.  But as we know with influenza, it is important to get behind the numbers.  How are these calculations made, cheap ativan online cheap. Idaho ID , The comparison with seasonal flu is complicated because the numbers are calculated in significanly different ways.

1) The Seasonal Flu deaths estimate is a famous and important one, αγοράσετε ativan έκπτωση, Cheap ativan overnight delivery, and I have encountered references to it again and again during fieldwork among syndromic surveillance developers and users (this at the time that they were trying to demonstrate the utility of s.s. by its early detection of seasonal flu outbreaks).  The numbers are based on a study by William Thomson published in 2003 in JAMA and updated for intervening years in 2009.  The study attempted to correlate excess deaths from circulatory and respiratory illness during flu season with flu isolates collected by viral surveillance laboratories.  The mathematics behind the study is explained in simple terms in this recent Slate article.  Basically, ativan without a prescription, Osta ativan, the study used a regression analysis to solve a multi-variable equation that looks like this:

[Total R and I deaths] = [R and I Deaths if there were no such thing as flu] + X*[number of confirmed flu cases]

Once the two variables are found that best fit reported data, the product of X*[number of confirmed flu cases] is the number of flu deaths, generic ativan. Ordering ativan, 2) H1N1 deaths are calculated for the recent report with a completely different method.  These deaths are calculated using data from the Emerging Infections Program (EIP)—a ‘sentinel’ surveillance system set up in 1994.  The EIP is a collaboration of ten state health departments with the CDC.  In each state, the health deparmtnet assembles a network of local health departments, buy ativan online cheap, Lowest price ativan, academic institutions, laboratories, Wyoming WY Wyo. , Pharmacie ativan bon marché, and doctors offices or hospitals.  The network is especially attuned to monitor for emerging or unusual diseases, and research or active surveillance efforts are undertaken through this network.  The H1N1 flu deaths were calculated by first assessing flu hospitalizations in this network.  The actual number of hospitalizations in the EIP network are “extrapolated” into ‘national data’ and corrected using a probabalistic multiplier model developed for an earlier CDC estimate of H1N1 prevalence  (and originally used to assess the impact of foodborne illness).  Then deaths are calculated from the national hospitalization data.  This calculation is made using a ratio derived elsewhere of laboratory-confirmed deaths to laboratory-confirmed hospitalizations, Massachusetts MA Mass. .

Discussion:  Its hard for me to think how to begin to compare these two numbers based on the vastly different techniques used to calculate them.  Certainly it seems premature to use them in the glib fashion that says there have been only 1/3 as many deaths from H1N1 as seasonal influenza.  Perhaps more worth noting (in classic nineteenth century, hygiene publique fashion) is the differential mortality associated with H1N1 pandemic.  According to CDC numbers, this has been two-fold.  First, the H1N1 pandemic disproportionately effects those under 65.  A full 7,500 of the estimate 10,000 deaths occurred in the 18-64 age bracket, an age bracket that makes up only a modest portion of the ‘seasonal flu’ deaths.  Such an age-shift is a classic sign of pandemic strains and was observed in many previous pandemics.  Second, the pandemic H1N1 has caused four times more deaths among “American Indians and Alaskan Natives” according to a recent study.  The CDC study attributes this differential mortality to “environmental” conditions, which they go on to specify as poverty, delayed access to healthcare, and low vaccination coverage, along with underlying risk-conditions such as asthma and diabetes.

So to say this outbreak is not severe seems wrong, although an accurate metric of severity is still waiting.  Moreover, the delays in calculating severity seem to point up some of the weaknesses of statistical risk calculation for dealing with emerging infections.  How would a preparedness system judge severity differently.

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By: Carlo Caduff
Posted in avian flu, biopolitics, bioscience, catastrophe models, conferences and talks, early warning systems, emergency response, preparedness, risk, security frameworks, swine flu, vital systems on December 15th, 2009

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Behemoth - A peer-reviewed journal published by the Akademie Verlag, Berlin

Special Issue: Epidemic Orders

In the past few years, epidemic events, both actual and virtual, have made a spectacular comeback. Comprar ativan, Emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases such as avian and swine flu have generated great anxiety the world over, resulting in a pervasive sense of vulnerability, ativan over the counter, Price of ativan, insecurity, and uncertainty, order ativan online. Virginia VA Va. , A powerful spirit of urgency, based on a genuine concern for human health and well-being, ordering ativan without prescription, Order ativan, overdetermined by a variety of scientific, political, Arizona AZ Ariz. , Om ativan online, and economic interests, engendered a real flurry of action, Michigan MI Mich. . Pharmacy ativan, In the epic battle against germs, the biopolitical state mobilized material and symbolic resources at an unprecedented scale, Vermont VT Vt. . Maine ME Me. , In the shadow of the emerging infectious disease threat, significant shifts in public health, order ativan no prescription, Cheapest ativan in the world, medical care, and scientific research have occurred, Tennessee TN Tenn. . The aim of this special issue of Behemoth is to offer an initial set of diagnostic accounts, buy ativan online cheap. Køb billige ativan, What are the domains in which fundamental shifts have occurred over the past few years. Who are the actors involved and what are the underlying logics animating these shifts in public health, Kansas KS Kans. , Ativan prescription, medical care, and scientific research, where to buy cheap ativan. Arkansas AR Ark. , The key aim of this issue is to draw analytic attention to recent reconfigurations and to identify the kind of epidemic orders that are taking shape today at the heart of the biopolitical state.

Please send abstracts for this special issue of Behemoth to the editor Carlo Caduff (carlocaduff@access.uzh.ch) and to Kathrin Franke (behemoth@rz.uni-leipzig.de), order ativan cod. Acheter ativan discount, Deadline for submission of abstracts: 30 January 2010. Deadline for submission of articles: 30 June 2010, cheap ativan online. Ativan pharmacy.

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