The Next Pandemic
By: Carlo CaduffPosted in avian flu, biopolitics, preparedness, swine flu on December 31st, 2009
The novel H1N1 virus has been elected the “virus of the year.” According to the journal Science, the pandemic was a “near miss.” As the authors of the short piece argue, the “H1N1 virus was less virulent than feared, but the next pandemic could be worse.” Prepare for the next pandemic is the message.
What kind of work is the trope of the Next Pandemic doing? Might it not be worth investigating the current pandemic first, before we jump to the next? Before we orient ourselves towards the near future, it might be necessary to first inhabit the recent past in some meaningful way. What, in fact, has just happened? Apparently, it is easier for experts to take responsibility for the future than for the past.
Just to remind ourselves:
1. Most experts predicted the emergence of an H5 virus. It was an H1 virus.
2. Most experts predicted that the pandemic would start off in South-East Asia. It turned out to be closer to home.
3. Most experts predicted that it would be a devastating event. WHO now calls it a “moderate” pandemic.
4. Most experts predicted serious consequences for critical infrastructure.
Good luck with the next predictions! Trust your expert!