The Next Phase
By: Carlo CaduffOne of the interesting questions is the following: If this virus (which we are not allowed to name anymore …) continues to circulate among humans, will the WHO announce phase 6, i.e. a full-scale pandemic? With a virus that seems to cause not much mortality, this will be a difficult question. I really doubt that they will announce phase 6, even if all the criteria of phase 6 are essentially met. The pandemic alert scheme might soon need extensive revision …
Here is the WHO description of phase 6:
Phase 6, the pandemic phase, is characterized by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region. Designation of this phase will indicate that a global pandemic is under way.
May 1st, 2009 at 8:26 am
But isn’t there another key number (still missing), in terms of the decision about which plan to put into action: the “pandemic severity index”? If it is a “category 2″ pandemic then one does very different things than if it is a “category 4″ pandemic. Presumably one could have a “Phase 6, category 2″ pandemic that would not imply massive intervention.
May 1st, 2009 at 9:00 am
Yes, but as far as I know the pandemic severity index has only been used in the US.
May 1st, 2009 at 10:19 am
That raises the interesting questions of what other countries’ “pandemic preparedness” plans look like, in comparison to the US. As Carlo has written, the US plan focuses on preserving the functioning of essential services and “critical infrastructure” in the event of a high severity pandemic.