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April 28th, 2009 at 1:35 pm
Official WHO response to your question:
“The Director-General considered that production of
seasonal influenza vaccine should continue at this time,
subject to re-evaluation as the situation evolves. WHO
will facilitate the process needed to develop a vaccine
effective against A/H1N1 virus.”
April 28th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
was the virus really sequenced already on Friday?
http://www.cjad.com/news/565/919854
ue, 2009-04-28 16:04.
Claude Beaulieu
A company in Quebec City has already begun work on a new vaccine to counter the swine flu.
Medicago is moving almost as fast as the swine flu virus itself, with company CEO Andy Sheldon saying his researchers received the genetic sequence of the new swine flu strain just last friday.
But it’s a long way from the lab to the production facility. Once the vaccine is created, it must be tested on animals, then humans, then sent to Health Canada for approval.
Sheldon says Health Canada could possibly speed up the process if the World Health Organization declared a pandemic emergency.
April 29th, 2009 at 1:30 am
This company is producing a so called Virus-Like Particle vaccine. This is a completely new type of vaccine, which, as far as I know, has not yet been approved anywhere and is still being tested in clinical trials. If a vaccine for swine flu will be produced, I think it is going to be based on the standard egg-based technique.
As we have seen in 1976, vaccine production is a tricky process and can have its own pathological effects. So I guess at this point, nobody would really want to use an experimental technique of vaccine production.
But I am sure the announcement will make the desired impact on the stock market.
April 29th, 2009 at 1:32 am
As to the standard technique, I think it would probably take between 2 to 4 months. The vaccine would most likely be effective even in 6 or 12 months.
April 29th, 2009 at 8:59 am
And then there is the question of supply: how long would it take to produce 300 million doses (for the US)? What system is in place for deciding the order in which people get vaccinated? And what about the global south?
April 29th, 2009 at 9:23 am
For those of you who have not gotten your copy of Nature Biotechnology yet, “Development Trends for therapeutic antibody fragments” by Nelson and Reichart p.331 forward
will fill you in on this new technique or approach.
April 29th, 2009 at 1:50 pm
As to distribution and prioritization, I have a paper on that …
April 29th, 2009 at 7:19 pm
I just attended a talk by Art Reingold today. Best case scenario with standard production techniques would be 3 months after seed virus is delivered to vaccine producers for a total 190M doses produced. It’s more likely to be around 65M.
Also, a little known and surprising fact, virtually all serious type A influenza viruses would require 2 doses of vaccine, given around 1 month apart – which would throw a wrench into the prevention works. The first one only ‘primes’ the body for the second dose, but would not immunize.
Reingold is now on a panel (and has been flying back and forth from Berkeley to Geneva for the past two weeks) to decide on a “who gets what when” plan to dole out the 150M stockpile of WHO held vaccines. The panel was convened before the swine flu outbreak, and had already been trying to come up with recommendations for a distribution system.
The tentative conclusion? Let each nation have their ‘fair share’ and they will decide for themselves.
April 30th, 2009 at 3:10 pm
Theresa – a few questions on your post.
(1) About this WHO stockpile: this is an existing stockpile (which, presumably, is not effective for the current strain)? Or is it that the plan would be for WHO to develop 150 million doses?
(2) Did Reingold or others talk about global vaccine production capacity? I assume it is mostly concentrated in W. Europe, the US and Japan?
(3) Do you know how intellectual property fits in to the story? Do producers license the strain from WHO?
May 1st, 2009 at 12:15 pm
(1) About this WHO stockpile: this is an existing stockpile (which,
presumably, is not effective for the current strain)? Or is it that the
plan would be for WHO to develop 150 million doses?
There is no existing stockpile. This is a future, virtual stockpile that
they are debating right now that will (presumably) be made real when and
if a seed virus is produced. The vaccine currently in production for the
fall does not contain a vaccine for the current H1N1 strain. Although, it
does actually contain another H1N1 strain, by happenstance. If they get
something for this new strain, it will probably require people agreeing to
THREE vaccinations this fall: one regular combo vaccine, and two doses for
the H1N1 being circulated now.
(2) Did Reingold or others talk about global vaccine production capacity?
I assume it is mostly concentrated in W. Europe, the US and Japan?
Reingold really didn’t get to go into much detail in his talk (only one
hour and he was trying to cover both H5N1 and H1N1). However, he did say
that the U.S. has absolutely no capacity to produce its own vaccines.
Currently, all vaccines distributed in the U.S. are produced either in
Canada or Europe. I have no idea about Japan or where Asia will get their
vaccines.
(3) Do you know how intellectual property fits in to the story? Do
producers license the strain from WHO?
I think that seed viruses that come out of the WHO or CDC labs are
considered part of the scientific ‘commons’, but that might be changing
due to recent issues over Indonesian samples.
What I can tell you is that Mexican officials have announced that they
simply do not have the capacity or advanced technology to deal with all
the samples. I believe they are being shipped to various companies with
labs and production capacity in Canada (under the auspices of the WHO and
the CDC), in addition to being given to the CDC, state labs, etc.
The WHO’s plan requires donations from countries to stockpile vaccines for
dissemination. I would assume that richer countries would have their own
plan to free up funds for immediate purchase once a vaccine became
available. But if that’s the case, then how could the WHO ensure that 150M
doses would be available for purchase? I hate to be pessimistic, but I
can’t imagine that the law of supply and demand would simply vanish in the
event of a pandemic.
Once the dust settles, I would lay good money down on a bet that says
Mexico makes a claim for extra access or cheaper vaccines – especially if
the seed virus was developed from a case in Mexico.