Strategic Bombing in Georgia
By: Stephen CollierI have a sense that there are a bunch of things we should be talking about, including developments in the Anthrax case.
But here just a quickie on Georgia. I happened across a chilling article — pasted in below — from a Russian news service. The article is an exhortation for the Russian army to go all the way into Georgia. Among many interesting and disturbing things, it calls for a strategic bombing campaign against Georgia:
“Obviously, entrenching Russia’s military presence in South Ossetia cannot be the goal of this war. A source from the SKVO told us: “We have to go all the way - destroy the runways at all airfields, including civilian airports - and all key railway nodes. Cut off Georgia’s supplies of gas, and its electricity supplies - with 70% of that coming from the Inguri power plant in Abkhazia. Make the ports at Poti and Batumi inoperable, along with the oil terminal at Supsa, and the railway lines to Azerbaijan and Turkey.”
The kicker? The model is the U.S. bombing campaign against Serbia:
“Ruslan Pukhov agrees: “The USA demonstrated in Yugoslavia what ought to be done in this kind of situation. It isn’t clear why television broadcasting and cell-phones are still functioning in Georgia. I hope Russia at least decides to establish a 10-15 kilometer buffer zone around South Ossetia, patrolled by infantry
as well as from the air.”"
Full article after the jump…
RBC Daily
No. 148
August 11, 2008
FIGHTING TO WIN
In the war with Georgia, Russia needs to go all the way
Retaining the status quo with Georgia would amount to defeat for Russia
Author: Viktor Yadukha
[Unless Georgia's infrastructure is destroyed, Russia risks losing
the war. And if that happens, the Russian authorities can forget
about a worthy place in the international arena and support from
the Russian public.]
Yesterday’s reports from South Ossetia shed some light on the
contradictory picture of this war. It turned out that although the
Russian media had reported the capture of Tskhinvali two days
running, it wasn’t fully taken by Russian troops until Sunday,
August 10. But there remains the danger that the Russian military
will stop there, allowing the Georgian military to regroup again
on the commanding heights and descend on Tskhinvali. The only
viable option in this situation is to drive the enemy back toward
Tbilisi; but no orders to that effect had been issued as at Sunday
evening. Reports of Russian air-strikes on military bases,
airfields, and ports in Georgia are mostly coming from Georgian
sources, and may turn out to be greatly exaggerated,
unfortunately. That’s “unfortunate” because unless Georgia’s
infrastructure is destroyed, Russia risks losing the war. And if
that happens, the Russian authorities can forget about a worthy
place in the international arena and support from the Russian
public.
The war has been under way for almost a week, but there are
still more questions than answers. It isn’t clear why there still
hasn’t been a firm order for Russian troops to drive the enemy
back into the Georgian heartland. “Not much information is
available, but to all appearances, we’re afraid of a negative
reaction from the international community,” says Ruslan Pukhov,
head of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies
(CAST). Another possible reason is the condition of the Russian
Armed Forces. Pukhov says: “The North Caucasus Military District
(SKVO) is regarded as the most combat-capable district in Russia -
and we’re not in 1994 any more, obviously - but even now, our
troops aren’t in the best condition. To give Saakashvili credit,
his military is well-equipped and well-trained. Georgia has one of
the world’s highest per capita defense spending levels.”
Objectively, in the eyes of the West, Georgia’s genocide
against the Ossetians gives Moscow stronger formal grounds to
consolidate its military presence beyond the Great Caucasus Range
- and it will be harder for the Western media to ignore those
grounds. But statements from Russian officials indicate that
Russia has no techniques of its own in the media war with the
West: it’s the same old references to the impotent UN Security
Council, and the openly hostile OSCE and EU - with calls for
Saakashvili to face an international tribunal, as if anyone other
than Ossetians and Russians had the moral right to judge that
person. Neither does it inspire optimism to see Moscow unprepared
to confirm the bombing of military and transport infrastructure in
the Georgian heartland; and then there are the conflicting stories
about the Black Sea Fleet ships - either sailing along the
Abkhazian coast or approaching Novorossiisk.
Obviously, entrenching Russia’s military presence in South
Ossetia cannot be the goal of this war. A source from the SKVO
told us: “We have to go all the way - destroy the runways at all
airfields, including civilian airports - and all key railway
nodes. Cut off Georgia’s supplies of gas, and its electricity
supplies - with 70% of that coming from the Inguri power plant in
Abkhazia. Make the ports at Poti and Batumi inoperable, along with
the oil terminal at Supsa, and the railway lines to Azerbaijan and
Turkey. With support from aircraft, rocket artillery, and
infantry, tanks should be used to push the Georgian army back a
long way beyond South Ossetia. Russian paratroopers should land in
Abkhazia and Ajaria, to develop a reciprocal offensive, with naval
support. The finale should involve capturing Tbilisi and arresting
Saakashvili, who ought to have a $10 million reward on his head.
But that is not the case, and the prospects are uncertain.”
Ruslan Pukhov agrees: “The USA demonstrated in Yugoslavia
what ought to be done in this kind of situation. It isn’t clear
why television broadcasting and cell-phones are still functioning
in Georgia. I hope Russia at least decides to establish a 10-15
kilometer buffer zone around South Ossetia, patrolled by infantry
as well as from the air.”
A military source told us of apprehensions that Russian
troops, dug in amidst the smoking ruins of Tskhinvali, could be
drawn into years of sluggish positional crossfire, with an endless
supply of weaponry - which won’t stop unless Georgia’s
infrastructure is destroyed. And settling into that kind of status
quo would be equivalent to defeat for Russia. The whole world is
watching Russia’s actions closely. This war, which Russia couldn’t
avoid, is a test of Russia’s own viability as well as a test of
its combat capacities. The blood of thousands of dead Ossetians
will either entrench the outcomes of the USSR’s collapse
conclusively - or become a line marking the start of some new
history.
“Russia is prepared to tear Saakashvili and the Georgian
butchers to pieces,” said South Ossetian President Eduard Kokoity
on August 10. “This is expressed in the way so many Russian
volunteers are gathering at the border with South Ossetia. It’s
been a long time since Russia saw such strong popular mobilization
and outrage. There are queues at the checkpoints, and not everyone
who wishes to fight is able to do so.”
Translated by InterContact